| The Question | Expiration Date | No More Predictions Accepted Date | UpVotes |
|---|---|---|---|
| By 2027, by popular consensus, Halloween will be celebrated on the last Saturday of October instead of the October 31st. | 11/30/2021 | 11/12/2025 | 1 |
| The technological singularity will occur in the first half of the 21st century | 12/31/2050 | 12/31/2049 | 1 |
| In rationalist circles AI Risk/Alignment will be memory holed and the concept will shift to generalized existential threats from human factors. | 8/1/2027 | 2/1/2027 | 0 |
| Will the 2028 GOP presidential nominee support national restrictions on birth control? | 1/1/2029 | 12/30/2023 | 0 |
|
Will Russia intentionally detonate a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2024?
|
1/1/2024 | 12/31/2022 | 0 |
|
If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in the course of the war in Ukraine, will China participate in trade sanctions?
|
12/31/2023 | 12/31/2022 | 0 |
| Will Daniel Penny be convicted of second-degree manslaughter in Jordan Neely’s death? | 6/5/2024 | 6/5/2024 | 0 |